Virginia Primary Map: Creigh Sweeps from Clarendon to Coal Country

Excellent Analysis!

What do you think Creigh will need to do to score big African American turnout for him?

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by: The Donkey @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 11:02:20 AM CDT

Enfranchisement

One thing I was very glad to see this year was all candidates talking about reforming Virginia's overly restrictive laws prohibiting felons who have done their time and repaid their debt to society from voting. THAT is an issue which has some game, I think.

Not to mention the fact that it is just the right thing to do, period.

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by: Paradox13VA @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 11:13:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Second this

The fact is that our restrictive laws have a very discriminatory impact upon the African American community in particular.

While we're at it we really need to see Virginia take a good long look at Jim Webb's concerns about the incarceration crisis.  The General Assembly has been steadily expanding the definition of felonies for years.  The zero tolerance drug nonsense has got to go.  Right now, anyone in illicit possession of practically anything but marijuana is committing a felony no matter how small the amount.  Let's stop sending drug addicts and casual recreational drug users to prison and imposing felony convictions on people for what in other jurisdictions is considered a middling misdemeanor.  I'd love to see some action on this issue.

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by: Catzmaw @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 12:33:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I would LOVE

to see Creigh make an announcement that, by executive order, every ex-felon that has completed his/her prison sentence will automatically be re-instated to the voter rolls, without having to apply to be reinstated.

(I had hoped Brian would make this kind of announcement, but ...)

If Creigh were to make a major push for voting rights like this, I think this would really help his standing in the African-American community going forward.  

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by: Ron @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 14:39:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm pretty certain that's the job of the general assembly

and no executive order has that scope of power.  But, they can and should push for it.

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by: notjohnsmosby @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 19:20:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Washington Post and Yard Signs

The Washington Post endorsement was huge for the campaign because it made voters in Northern Virginia look at Creigh as a candidate since even in their own words, he wasn't he "obvious" choice he was the "right" choice.  I think given the amount of media attention that Terry and Brian really garnered in the months leading up to May made people think "Wow, if the Post endorsed a guy who lives closer to WV than DC then there must be some good stuff there."  I know I spoke to a lot of callers in my hundreds if not close to over 1,000 calls I've made and a lot of people took notice to the Post's endorsement.  I'm speaking from my personal experience with callers, so say what you want about the effect of the endorsement I can say it had a substantial affect.

Regarding the yard signs:  You are right, they virtually did just pop up overnight.  I actually thought that there were going to be substantially more McAuliffe and Moran signs in comparison to Deeds signs, especially knowing the I.A.F.F (Firefighters) have a solid game plan in that regard.  IF you remember around the time they popped up we were going through that long stretch of rain and nasty weather.  Team Deeds NoVa (As I've come to call it) put up most of the signs during that nasty weather and didn't let it affect wave of signs they wanted to put out.  The signs went up over a very short period and I can speak that the weather was horrible so I'm not sure if that affected other volunteers in not wanted to go out in the weather.  

Lastly, the McAuliffe campaign spoke of their vast volunteers leading up to election day.  I don't think many people know the size the Northern Virginia operation for Deeds outside of our group.  I won't disclose our exact number because no matter the size it got the job done, especially given the fact that Creigh handily won Northern Virginia!

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by: DanielK @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 12:38:39 PM CDT

What about NoVA

I don't think you need to wonder.  The battle will most certainly be fought here as well as in Hampton Roads and Richmond.  The three metro areas account for well over 50% of the votes cast in the 2008 and 2005 elections.  Fairfax's share of the vote is twice that of the next highest which is Virginia Beach City.  Stopping at Loudon and Prince William, NoVA's share of the vote was 27.7% of the vote in 2008 and 25.6% in 2005.  I fully expect that share to be even higher this year (even with low turn-out).  And just for further perspective, increasing your margin in Fairfax has 10 times the impact of increasing your margin by a similar percent in Albemarle County.  So, any statewide candidate would be a fool not to spend a good deal of time here.  

I can assure you Bob McDonnell will be spending a lot of time, money and effort in Loudon, Prince William and Fairfax.  And so Deeds will need to at a minimum match him.  

Now the media market here may be way expensive, but money is going to be pouring in from out of state.  The only other governor's race this year is New Jersey.  So, expect this to be a battle royale with Republicans firing up their big donor base in the Houston and Dallas zip codes.  And while major network media may be expensive here, the cable alternative is less so.  I know have seen Bob McDonnell ads on constant rotation on New Channel 8 (the local ABC affiliate's sister station).

And to be absolutely clear, winning Loudon and PW in the primaries is not the same as winning them in the general.  This will be a low turn-out year.  So, I worry that Loudon, PW, and Fairfax will be prime pick-up ground for the Republicans.  If nothing else, cutting the margin will do wonders for them.  See my example above to see that a small change in FFX can do a lot of damage.

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by: tx2vadem @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 16:00:50 PM CDT

No way in hell McDonnell will win in Northern Virginia

It's just not going to happen. The area is constantly growing more liberal.

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by: Captain Carrot @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 17:43:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But we shouldn't take anything for granted... n/t

"One person, one vote" died at the hands of SCOTUS, January 21, 2010

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by: KathyinBlacksburg @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 18:17:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Darn right!

Nothing should be taken for granted this fall!  The Republicans want Virginia to be red again.  Now that all three camps can join as one I think we'll be unstoppable!  

Deeds, Wagner and Shannon Supporter!!!

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by: DanielK @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 19:29:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My point is not that he will win them

If he only narrows the gap, that benefits him extraordinarily.  And as other people point out, I would not take the whole of Northern Virginia for granted.

What I think needs to be recognized is that Republicans also picked the best possible candidate they could put forward in the general.  Bob McDonnell will be a challenge.  He is not Kilgore.

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by: tx2vadem @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 11:39:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Speaking AS Loudoun

Speaking as a precinct captain in Loudoun County - we are not going to let our side lose.

The thing about the past few years here is this: regardless of the candidate's presence, we have been building an army of canvassers and activists since the 2006 Webb campaign here. (Really, since David Poisson in 2005.) I for one have walked my precinct a few times in each election cycle for the past three years.

So yeah, we look forward to our candidates spending time here. That being said, their absence or presence isn't going to impact whether or not I put my hat on and knock doors each weekend.

I'm doing that anyway.

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by: Paradox13VA @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 18:56:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It'll be interesting to see

how the two campaigns (Deeds vs McDonnell) unfold; where each of them thinks his "Achilles heel" might be, and how they try to "bandage" it.

For Deeds, we have to balance:
1) west and south west is my natural base/stomping ground but rural/small town Va tends to be pro-Republican. Can I afford to assume that the support of the "native son" will prevail over what the preachers say, Sunday after Sunday? Especially in sparsely populated areas? What worked for the primary isn't likely to translate into the same results in general.

with:
2) NoVa is, exactly, "the other way around". It trends Democratic, and is more densely populated (more bang for the buck) but it's also more likely to assume I'm a hick who doesn't know or care about their concerns. How much effort and cash do I need to expend, to persuade them otherwise?

And then, of course, there is the rest of the state -- neither SoVa, nor NoVa, both urban and rural -- which will, probably, need a different approach still.

I don't know enough McDonnell to know what/where his solid base might be and where his weak points are but, I expect, they'll be somewhat similar. Neither one of them can take any part of the state for granted. But both, likely, will profit from as large -- and targeted -- a turnout as we can scramble up.

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by: libra @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 21:00:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Shenandoah Valley could be decisive

looks to me as though it could shape up that way. I live on the border of Highland and Bath, work on the border of Rockingham.

Need to get the Obama Harrisonburg operation revved up again, sooner rather than later.

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by: benjaminwalterWV @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 17:00:36 PM CDT

It sure did an awseome job in 2008

It (the Obama Harrionburg operation) sure did an awesome job in 2008.  500 folks at one event!  That's better than we did here in MOCO.  And we have Democratic representation here.

"One person, one vote" died at the hands of SCOTUS, January 21, 2010

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by: KathyinBlacksburg @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 18:18:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It was magic Kathy

but, despite significant Democratic gains there, the other side have the Harry Byrd Jr. daily newspaper, the rural countryside and heavy representation in Congress and the state legislature.

I'll shortly e-mail all my old friends over there from this past fall, though I'm certain that's unnecessary.

I'm sure they're "Fired Up and Ready To Go."

(But it never hurts to add some extra fuel to the fire, either.)

:)

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by: benjaminwalterWV @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 19:25:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]