VA-Gov - in first poll, Deeds already leads McDonnell

Independents = Disgruntled R's

I think a LOT of Virginia Independents aren't really Independents, but rather Republicans who do not want to be associated with that label any more. I think it is a very good and strong sign for Deeds that he is leading even while losing Independents to McDonnell.

We should all get out early and often to knock doors for our side and start defining the other side.

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by: Paradox13VA @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 10:38:56 AM CDT

That could be the case...

I always laughed whenever Felix Allen talked about conservative values and the party of Lincoln.  Couldn't be farther from the truth and maybe these folks that are moving from R to I have finally figureed it out.  

Off K Street

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by: chspkheel @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 20:25:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Best topline

Who do you trust to cut government spending?
McDonnell 39
Deeds 33

Being within 6 points on government spending gives Deeds the chance to wipe out a good-sized plank of the GOP platform. The less "fiscal responsibility" (that great Reaganist myth) that McDonnell has for ammo, the more he has to rely on social issues, and the more he alienates moderates/independents.

Previous comment about defining early is spot-on. It's important that Deeds continue layering himself in the Warner-Kaine responsible management message, and really work this unexpected advantage for all it's worth.

--


"I believe that, as long as there is plenty, poverty is evil." --RFK

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by: Roland the HTG @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 10:47:37 AM CDT

Good news!

There are two reasons, in my opinion, why the latest Rasmussen poll is good news for Deeds.

First, Rasmussen is one of the few polls I care about in a non-primary election.  Why?  Because I believe it overpolls those who are conservative.  I won't claim to understand all of the ins and outs of why this is, but I've found that it always pays to look at the toughest polls for Dems and extrapolate from that.  (Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and all that.)  So for any Democrat to be up against any Republican is, to me, a good sign.

Second, even with all of the talk of Deeds loss to McDonnell four years ago, I have always advocated that the three hundred plus votes between them came not over a policy issue so much as a lack of name recognition.  Four years ago, getting Tim Kaine elected seemed like a long shot, let alone being able to focus on the Lt. Gov and AG races.  Republicans had a money and grassroots benefit for the lesser races (perhaps, ultimately, at the expense of the Governor's mansion.)

For those of us paying attention, Deeds has had plenty of good press.  But let's face it -- most people are not yet paying attention, what with school finishing up and vacations and summer activities being planned.  So this is heartening for those of here, but we should never, ever be complacent.  It's going to be a long hard slog until November.

(grin) But then again, isn't it always?

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by: GretchenLaskas @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 13:06:27 PM CDT

Where was Kaine at the same point against Kilgore?

If memory serves me, Kaine was down quite a bit at the same point during his run for Governor.  Creigh is in a much better position right now after coming off a contested primary.  This bodes well, but still a lot of time between now and November.  

Off K Street

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by: chspkheel @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 20:29:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen had it 46-40 Kilgore in June

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V...

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by: johnny longtorso @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 21:04:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ken: Minor correction

It has all the limitations of a one-day poll, and of a telephone poll

Almost all polling is done via telephone. I think you meant automated telephone poll.

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by: Red Sox @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 14:03:01 PM CDT

Seems obvious to me

They'll run a campaign based on Creigh as a surrogate for President Obama.

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by: benjaminwalterWV @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 18:08:39 PM CDT

This is one time

when national matters will intrude on state elections, I agree. Also, keep in mind the vicious bigotry and suggestions of violence shown by the nominal head of the Republicans, Rush Limbaugh. The fringe-nut inmates are taking over the Party, and their craziness may well infect the campaign here in Virginia. See my recent post "Lurking Lethal Latent Issues" on this very subject.(Forgive the alliteration, please).

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by: Teddy Goodson @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 18:58:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]