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xcurmudgeon

For Moran & McAuliffe, this is just the beginning.

by: Chris Guy

Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 00:44:40 AM EDT


( - promoted by kindler)

Obviously things are looking pretty good for Creigh Deeds right now as the Democratic nominee for Governor, but what about those other guys? Is this the end of the world for Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe? Both were once frontrunners. Both had more money and staff than Sen. Deeds. And they blew it! It's over for them! Right? Well, as Lee Corso would say: "Not so fast my friend."

For one thing, Democratic unity means not only good things for Deeds in November, but good things for Brian & Terry in 2010 and beyond. Sen. Deeds earned the admiration of many Moran & McAuliffe voters, and the feeling is mutual. You don't have to hope that these two guys will work their butts off for Creigh, JodyWagner, & Steve Shannon this year, you know they will.

Cross-Posted at Fred2Blue

Chris Guy :: For Moran & McAuliffe, this is just the beginning.
For another thing, losing is no big deal. Everybody loses. Creigh Deeds in 2005, Mark Warner in 1996, and they're doing pretty good. In fact, the last 4 President have all lost congressional races early in their career. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, & George W. Bush all lost House races, while George H.W. Bush lost a Senate race in Texas to Lloyd Bentsen way back in the day (1980 was Ronald Reagan's third attempt at becoming President, following loses in '68 & '76. Richard Nixon lost a race for California Governor in '62 after his loss to JFK in '60, and still got elected President in '68). You get the idea. The things that a candidate learns just by running are worth their weight in gold, win or lose.

And how about future options? Where do you even begin..... we're a bellweather state bordering the nation's capital for god's sake.

McLean, home of Terry McAuliffe, is in the 10th congressional district, currently represented by Frank Wolf. Congressman Wolf is a safe incumbent, but the 10th is a blue district and Frank ain't getting any younger. And if Jim Moran's 8th district seat ever opens up, would anyone beat Brian Moran in a primary or general election? Nope. Plus, being a member of Congress from the D.C. suburbs is no ordinary gig. Members from Maryland and Virginia usually have the fast track to campaign committee chairman, since they can spend 365 days a year in the D.C. area (think Tom Davis, Chuck Robb, George Allen, Chris Van Hollen, etc. Watch for Gerry Connolly to possibly take the helm of the DCCC at some point in the future). If your party picks up seats while you head up one of those outfits, you become Congress' new goldenboy. George Allen, former NRSC Chairman, became one of his party's favorites for their '08 presidential nomination (pre-Macaca) after helping them pick up Senate seats in the '04 cycle. Tom Davis parlayed a successful NRCC gig into Chairman of the House Governmental Reform Committee. Chris Van Hollen is now Asst. Speaker after taking over the DCCC prior to '08. Heck, now that Rahm Emanuel is in The White House, Van Hollen could be Speaker in another 8-10 years (Rahm used his successful gig as DCCC Chair in '06 to win election as Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus).

Actually Terry McAuliffe should look at what Rahm Emanuel, also a well-known party insider from the Clinton years, has done with his political career. Rahm ran for Congress in Illinois in a safe Democratic district. His political skills made him a fast-rising star in the House chamber, and he was well on his way to achieving his dream of becoming the first Jewish Speaker before accepting a job as White House Chief of Staff.

But maybe Congress isn't for Terry. Word is Hillary Clinton would have appointed him Commerce Secretary if she became President. That is a perfect fit. If a Commerce Department didn't exist, Terry would probably create it himself.

While Brian's older brother keeps his future seat in the House of Reps. warm for him, there's plenty to do in the meantime. Waaaay too many State Senators from northern Virginia are Republicans, and going from Democratic Caucus Chairman in the House of Delegates to the State Senate seemed to work out OK for that country lawyer from Bath county.

As a former prosecutor, a lot of people thought Brian Moran would be a formidable candidate for Attorney General one day. If he staked his claim to the 2013 nomination early (or late for that matter), I think he'd be a virtual lock. Especially after seeing Steve Shannon, a fellow NoVA Delegate, wipe the floor with Ken Cuccinelli in about 5 months.

What I'm saying is, don't feel bad for Brian & Terry. You WISH you had these kinds of "problems."

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sorry, but disagree on the 8th District
there is a certain amount of Moran fatigue.  Remember that Brian lost 44 out of 51 geographic precincts in Arlington.

If it were a 3 or 4 way race, he might be the favorite, but in a 2-way with someone popular in Arlington, not clear he would be favored.

Not picking on anyone yet, but let me pose a couple of possibilities, not that any of them is necessarily considering it

Ingrid Morroy, Arlington's Commissioner of the Revenue

Jay Fisette of County Board

I could name others, but they will do for the sake of illustration.

Now, if Terry wanted to run in the 10th, you have to remember that he would be back to Federal campaign limits, which this past cycle were 4,600 when you combined primary and general.  That's a lot harder to do that raising 100K at a pop.  

Just a few general comments.

Peace.

This is my world and welcome to it


Can you name others that would run in VA-8 in 2010?
Why wait?  It would do credit to the Party to put a more progressive candidate in that seat now, and one that does not necessarily have the taint of scandal.  Otherwise, if the Republicans could put up a viable candidate, there might be a legitimate shot for them to win in 2010. There might be too much Moran fatigue plus a post-PMA investigation taint.

2010 will also be a low turnout election, as there is nothing else on that ballot.  Remember, the Republicans were able to take two Council seats in Alexandria in a low turnout election (well, one Republican, and one Independent in name only), and Charnielle Herring won her seat by only a few votes.

Plus, in Jim Moran's own words, a primary is good for the party (I need to find the quote, which referred to the election for Governor of course).    


[ Parent ]
You just made me, a politics nerd really excited
what if Brian ran against Kim in the primary.  I know it would never happen, but that would be a race to watch.

[ Parent ]
Kate Hanley briefly ran against him in 2003
She withdrew, but I forget why?

Fred2Blue

[ Parent ]
Many others will Run
This is by no means a "Moran" seat.  In a multi-candidate race, I'd put my money on David Englin who beat the Moran-selected successor in a five-way Dem. primary in '05.  Dem.s need to be self-critical and honest.  To me Brian Moran is a lot like the Redskins' quarterback, Jason Campbell, in that when they are both at the top of their games they are good, but far from great.  Unfortunately for us and the Redskins, if we want to move to the next level we must demand excellence.

David Englin could deliver this, as would Ingrid Morroy or Jay Fisette.  But still, it's not rocket-science, there are many others who could fit the bill, and I'll go out on a limb and predict it will be someone we've not yet considered.

In the meantime, let's not limit our choices and instead keep an open mind.  


[ Parent ]
Someone should challenge Jim in '10
I'm a firm believer that primaries are important to keep incumbents honest, and the fact of the matter is that Jim, while a good guy, hasn't accomplished much in this seat. This is, I believe, the most educated congressional district in America -- we should have a progressive champion in that seat, not a New Dem that voted for many of the banking regulations that got us in this financial wreck over the past few years.

While good on a few issues (Iraq, warrantless wiretapping), there is much in Moran's record to be scrutinized and brought to the attention of Dem voters in the 8th.  


[ Parent ]
Go David
and go Redskins.

[ Parent ]
10 Will Be A Battle Royale
I think the primary for the Dem nomination for VA-10 will be a battle royale in either 2010 or 2012, depending on (1) whether Wolf retires in 2010 and (2) redistricting in 2012. Depending on whether McLean is in the 10th or not, among other things.

There are at least 2-4 officials whose mouths are watering at the idea of competing for a VA-10 open seat as a D in 2010 or a Dem redistricted VA-10 in 2012.


Is there a reason Brian Moran didn't run for AG this year?
It puzzled me why he'd take Creigh on directly rather than going for Attorney General and being well positioned for governor in 2013.  

I wasn't too worked up when it was a two-candidate primary, figuring we'd end up with a good candidate either way (though I'm a Creigh "homer" in Rockbridge County, and I'm certainly thrilled with the outcome).  But it seemed to me as if the natural thing would have been to let the candidate who'd already come within a hair statewide take the top slot.


That's what a lot of people wanted
Creigh was by no means entitled to the Gov. nomination, but it would have been nice for our two strongest candidates to run for two different offices. Neither one would budge!

Also, Terry would not have entered their race if it wasn't already contested. Since there was no clear favorite, he threw his hat in the ring.  

Fred2Blue


[ Parent ]
Certainly not end of the road.....
But only time will tell what McAuliffe and Moran will do next. Right now, McAuliffe is going to be fully occupied getting Deeds elected, and gaining majority in the House. McAuliffe will stay totally focused on this, as that is his highest priority.  Last year when he was thinking of running for Governor, he was very clear that he would not do anything until the national elections were over and we had Obama as President - he wanted no distractions and so did not announce his exploratory efforts until after Obama was elected.

McAuliffe is a party man - be it Democratic, or just to party! His greatest strength is his love for the Democratic Party, more than anything else. That is probably largely behind his enthusiastic and highly motivating concession speech where he got every one behind Deeds!  He firmly believes it is more important to have a Democratic Governor for Virginia, and have control of the House, than for himself to be the Governor. He repeatedly stated this in his many speeches.  

McAuliffe will be a very interesting person to watch and follow, and see where he goes next.  I had a fun time helping his campaign and look forward to the next effort in any direction he chooses....


Do all the good you can
By all the means you can
In all the ways you can
In all the places you can
At all the times you can
To all the people you can
As long as ever you can
John Wesley


Brian's Future
Brian is a great guy with solid experience.  I think Gov. Deeds should appoint him as Secretary of Public Safety.

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