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Open Predictions Thread

by: Dave

Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 22:12:15 PM EDT

( - promoted by Dave)

The time is at hand. Polls open at 6 AM tomorrow morning.

Make your predictions now! Record them for posterity. Whoever gets closest to the actual result will be recognized as the next Larry Sabato, for better or worse!

Weigh in on Gov, Lt. Gov, HoD primaries, pick your poison.

I'll start off with a bold prediction: Steve Shannon will clench the Democratic nomination for Attorney General with close to 100% of the vote! Just kidding - pretty sure he's not even on the ballot.

We'll close this thread around noon tomorrow, so make sure to get them in now. Fire away!

UPDATE (by Eric): I'm updating this update by moving the "stories and reports" to their own thread.   Sorry for any confusion.

Dave :: Open Predictions Thread
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Here are my complete predictions:


Creigh Deeds - 38
Terry McAuliffe - 32
Brian Moran - 30

Lt. Governor:

Jody Wagner - 67
Mike Signer - 25
Jon Bowerbank - 8

Democratic House primary winners:

11th: Onzlee Ware
25th: Greg Marrow
35th: Mark Keam
38th: Bob Hull
47th: Adam Parkhomenko
52nd: Luke Torian
69th: Carlos Brown
80th: Matthew James
90th: Algie Howell

Republican House primary winners:

17th: Chris Head
23rd: Scott Garrett
55th: John Cox

The 17th and 23rd
Mike Wray in the 17th (Former BOS member in Roanke County-Cave Spring District).

Jeff Helgeson in the 23rd (the most exreme people come out to vote in Lynchburg Republican Primaries, but it will be close).  LU  

[ Parent ]
Not sure about that Bowerbank number
His name did not appear on the voting machine I used.  So, I don't know how he would get even 9%.

[ Parent ]
Bull Run precinct in Gainesville has sheets showing who dropped out.
In addition to the printed material that informs voters that Bowerbank dropped out, the sample ballots laying on the same table don't include Bowerbank.
One of the election officials confirmed to me that Jon's name had been removed from the voting machines at Jon's request. This precinct is in Prince William County so I'm sure the same has to apply to all PWC precincts. Therefore, it's certain that at least in tc2vadem's county and PWC votes for Jon will be exactly 0%.

[ Parent ]
Ditto in Northern Virginia....
The notice was on the registration desk, but the name did not appear in the voting machine. No room for error.  I guess this is the benefit of technology....

Do all the good you can
By all the means you can
In all the ways you can
In all the places you can
At all the times you can
To all the people you can
As long as ever you can
John Wesley

[ Parent ]
Bowerbank was on the voting machine I used in Fairfax.... but
The poll worker who was minding the machine made sure I knew he had pulled out.....

[ Parent ]
Okay, okay
he was still on the ballot in Virginia Beach, though.

Make it 68-30 Wagner then.

[ Parent ]
I was already recognized as Next Larry Sabato
by my classmates in PLP at Sorensen.  So there

anyone predicting hard numbers in two statewide races is making it up, since no one knows the makeup of vote

I do think order will be as shown in recent polls

I think Deed wins by at least 8

Order in LG is probably Wagner-Signer  and I would expect number to be double digits

Keam for sure

Maybe Grant in 47th

Hull probably holds on

Ware holds on

but what do I know

This is my world and welcome to it

I'll take...
Deeds 38
T-Mac 36
Moran 25

Wagner 57
Signer 40

I wish I knew more about the HoD races but I don't - suffice to say that Margi Vanderhye will be on the ballot for my district in Novemeber, and I couldn't be happier with that!

the view from Beth El
Brians  home precinct, it will go solidly Moran today.

WE got hit with loud thunder and heavy rain right at 6am

The view from Spring Hill
Terry's home precinct, will likely split about evenly between the three candidates, maybe T-Mac, Moran, Deeds in that order but all very close together.  Random guess though just based on neighbors I talk to.

Same on the lightning and rain.

[ Parent ]
In Brian's old district
Of course, we also got hit with rain too.  Heavy rain at 6 AM, gradually letting up until 8 AM, when I went to the poll in the highest turnout precinct in the West End of Alexandria.  Polls were pretty empty at 8 AM, only saw 4 voters in 5 minutes or so.  Kerry Donley was outside, but I did not see him handing out literature.  Received literature for Wagner and T-mac.

Weather aided prediction:

Deeds -- 44
T-mac -- 36
Moran -- 20

[ Parent ]
Thunderstorms in NoVa will supress uncommitted turnout.

There's a chance for a Deeds blowout if that happens.

Talked to a guy in the elevator at work
Voted at 7:55 in Fairfax, and was number 29. Friend's parents voted in Charlottesville (Venable precinct) and were 15 and 16. Yikes.


"I believe that, as long as there is plenty, poverty is evil." --RFK

I remember them...
15 and 16 voted at about 7:20 AM.  (I was working the polls for Jody Wagner.)  Things are REAL slow in Charlottesville.  My prediction, based on the absentee ballot returns, is that Charlottesville -- that hotbed of Jeffersonian democracy -- will vote about 8% today.  Statewide, look for about 4%.  That would be 200,000 statewide.  

[ Parent ]
Hearing substantially less than that.
latest estimate batted around after calling different precincts was 153K.

[ Parent ]
gotta look at differences around the state
current figures on voting seem to indicate Albemarle and C'Ville at 10%+, Arlington at 15%+ -  but all of that could depend upon late weather and the impact it has.

some precincts in C'ville = 2006 numbers by 1 or 2 pm.

This is my world and welcome to it

[ Parent ]
Overlee Knolls Precinct
I voted just before 6:30 am at the Overlee Knolls precinct in Arlington. I encountered maybe 2 other voters during the time I was there, and one of them was my fiancee who came with me.

The thunderstorms had just passed by, and the only person who was outside handing out literature at that point was a Miles Grant volunteer.

it was me and the poll workers.

I predict very VERY low turnout in the rural areas around C'Ville. Probably a blowout here for Deeds.

My wife and I voted about an hour ago.
We live in Springfield, in Fairfax County.
We were 64 and 65; there was no9body else there, nobody in the room, nobody leaving as we came in and nobody coming in as we left.
We both chose Deeds and Signer.

At 10:00 AM, Lees Corner Precinct in Sully District
we had 85 voters casting their votes - there were five us in the room while I was there.  The thunderstorm with scary lightening, heavy thunder and some real rain had its impact but for the last three hours there has not been any rain and so folks will hopefully turn in by day end.

My prediction is 300,000 voters with 150,000 for McAuliffe, 100,000 for Deeds and 50,000 for Moran.

Bold?  Wishful thinking?  Realistic?

I believe all of the above. This is based on the phone calls I made in the last two days, where half the voters were voting for McAuliffe, and Moran had a third of McAuliffe numbers and half the Deeds numbers - I wrote about this Monday night:

I have no idea whom I spoke with, excepting that they were established Democrats with a history of voting in Primary elections. They were certainly not McAuliffe supporters, and I have no idea which part of the state they lived in since I was using an automated dialer that got me at least 40 calls an hour.... So I am hopeful that this is an unbiased population and so my prediction is:

McAuliffe 50%
Deeds 33%
Moran 17%

Bold?  Yes.  If I was going to state that this was being close, with single digit differences, what will I be adding to the common wisdom?  This way, at the least I will provide every one some chuckles now, and eventually I will be right, or wrong - just like every one else who has been making predictions :).  The probability of my being right is 50%, no different from any one else making predictions:) If I am right, great. If I am wrong, what do the numbers matter?

At the least, I am sure we will have McAuliffe leading Deeds and Moran in the final outcome. I hope the three of them will work together not just to beat McDonnell, but also to take our great Commonwealth forward after one is sworn Governor.

A friend of mine who votes at the Frying Pan Park in Herndon reported that he was Voter 61 at 12:30 PM!  The turnout appears pathetic and I am hopeful that numbers will pick up in the evening and by 6:00 PM there will be lines :)

Do all the good you can
By all the means you can
In all the ways you can
In all the places you can
At all the times you can
To all the people you can
As long as ever you can
John Wesley

No offense.
But when I need a break, I want whatever it is you're smoking, both as to turnout and result.

[ Parent ]
Not smoking anything.....
and only being outrageously different, as stated in my original comment.  There is little to be achieved in simply agreeing with what every one else is stating.....

Turnout is not that outrageous - I am calling 6% instead of the 4%-5% every one else is expecting.

Result is what I would like to see of any candidate, a decisive 50% of turnout.

Will I be heartbroken if I am off by a few percentage numbers? No, we have greater challenges in life than being off by a few percentage numbers :)

I look forward to working together from Wednesday :)

Do all the good you can
By all the means you can
In all the ways you can
In all the places you can
At all the times you can
To all the people you can
As long as ever you can
John Wesley

[ Parent ]
Nader Has an Agenda and It's Nader
Today, the DC Court of Appeals dismissed Nader's litigation against the Democrats. So his comments of a couple of weeks ago were not just to sell a book. Nader was attempting to litigate in the newspaper. Seems that the Washington Post needs to better check and balance their writing.

Anyway, been watching one Arlington poll this morning. The voting numbers are over 10%. Been calling this afternoon, all over Virginia, and virtually all are McAuliffe supporters.

Predictions. Nader will not run for President again. If he does he'll get national totals which will be less than the Virginia primary. McAuliffe will pull out a very close race.  

McAuliffe people think it wil be their GOTV
and million plus dollars put into voter id and folllowup

but a caution for you -  callers for McAuliffe will only be calling committed TMac and voters identifiable as persuadable, so you will not be seeing committed Deeds or Moran names on your call sheets.

This is my world and welcome to it

[ Parent ]
You may be right, but the automated system I used included GOP &unregistered.
I make hundreds of calls from one of the McAuliffe "call and canvass" offices last Sat. and Sunday. The automated tel. system we used is the same one I used at Hillary's campaign HQ at Balston to make thousands of calls, and that system seemed to work very well with a good data base.

But the way the automated system has been set up has been causing many problems. The worst problem has been a very large number of calls repeated to the same tel. numbers, instead of removing the called number from the caling list after contact is made. Of the thousands of calls I made for Hillary, I never once had anyone tell me they had already received a single call before mine, much less multiple repeat calls we were all experiencing Sat. and Sunday. One woman I called a second time told me I had just called her less than two minutes before, and I'm sure she was right because I recognied her voice. Another woman (whose voice I also recognized and she remembered my name) told me my second call was the twelfth time that day (I think that was Sunday).

But more on-topic, we all reached several people who said they were strong republicans and have never voted in a Democratic primary. A few people I reached said they weren't even registered in Va., one who said he's not old enough and another who said she is an immigrant and not yet eligible to vote. I asked the young man, who is from Mich., if they were using something like the VAN with a data base of previously IDed voters and he thought so but didn't know for sure.

Basic shorter version: If the McA. campaign has restricted the numbers being called today to those already identified as undecided but persuadable, you might be right. But considering the apparent inadequate attention to (simple) technical and already-ID data base details, I have no reason to believe that whoever has screwed up a normally very smoothly operating system would even understand that the problems aren't normal, much less have a clue what to do about it or refine the tel. targeting to just the people who might be "persuadable".

This is why I decided not to make calls today. Anyone who answers at this stage will certainable be "persuadable", meaning they will be persuaded to either vote for Creigh or to just say the hell with it, I'm not going to bother to vote.

One last example of duplicate calls: I received a call a couple of days ago and said I would vote for Terry and was also making calls for him myself (the caller should have entered either "1" for "Will vote for Terry" or that I'm a strong supporter and volunteer (I forget what that number is). THEN I got a second call to my home number asking if I planned to vote for Terry, obviously confirming that my number was still in the "to be called" list. This time, I asked which ofc. the young man was calling from and he said Va. Beach. I told him I knew Susan Mariner well from the Webb campaign, he said she was right next to him also making calls. I didn't have the heart to ask him how many complaints they were hearing from people who were receiving multiple calls.  

[ Parent ]
Severe Thunderstorm Warning just hit as of 4:36 until 5:15
heavy rain, lightning and hail

Where ? I just walked my dog (Gainesville) and the weather is beautiful.

[ Parent ]
My Prediction..
.. Deeds by around 8:00 PM


My dkos prediction yesterday @ 7:23 pm:
Deeds 48, Mcauliffe 29, Moran 23

(jonimbluefaninWV on kos = benjaminwalterWV on Blue Commonwealth)

DCCyclone edged me on dkos:
DC @ 9:18 pm yesterday: Deeds 51, TMac 30, Moran 19.

Me about two hours earlier: 48 (D) 29 (McA) 23 (M)

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