VA-Gov - SUSA confirms PPP - Deeds by double digits

Deeds' numbers in NoVA even better than PPP (0.00 / 0)

I got a call from the Moran campaign last night. When I told him I was supporting Deeds, the guy on the other end of the phone just sighed like he knew it was coming.

Fred2Blue

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by: Chris Guy @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 11:42:48 AM CDT

regions defined differently by two polls (0.00 / 0)

so not sure one can do a really accurate comparison

This is my world and welcome to it

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by: teacherken @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 12:50:09 PM CDT

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I see what you mean (0.00 / 0)

I can't wait to see the results tomorrow from Fredericksburg and the surrounding areas. Outside of myself, support for Deeds down here is non-existent among prominent activists or elected officials. It's lonely at the top. Thank god for actual voters.

Fred2Blue

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by: Chris Guy @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 13:45:48 PM CDT

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Al Pollard endorsed Creigh (0.00 / 0)

and while he is not immediately from the area, his district does come pretty close, does it not?

This is my world and welcome to it

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by: teacherken @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 14:26:56 PM CDT

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Yeah, he got to know the area during his '07 Senate race (0.00 / 0)

Albert and Creigh were in Fredericksburg last week and it got some good coverage in the Free Lance Star. That followed high profile campaign stops by Moran and McAuliffe a few days earlier. So this was a pretty big deal.

Brian Moran, not surprisingly, is the preferred candidate among most House Democrats, much like Creigh has consolidated support among the Senate Democrats. I'm surprised that Sen. Houck of nearby Spotsylvania has stayed neutral in this race, I assumed he would be in the Deeds camp.

Moran has been endorsed by the Chairs of the Fredericksburg and Stafford Dem Committees, while McAuliffe has been endorsed by the Chairmen of the Stafford & Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors.

Needless to say, Del. Pollard is a godsend; both for Creigh and the commonwealth. I may live in Speaker Howell's district, but Pollard represents me.

Fred2Blue

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by: Chris Guy @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 15:30:53 PM CDT

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This Ken will engage in commentary (4.00 / 1)

The "Deeds is extreme on guns" attacks have failed; indeed, his momentum is increasing.  I would say they have officially failed, but that will have to wait another day.  And although it is far too early for the post-mortems to begin, I think that -- regardless of the outcome -- I am ready to say that far too little credence was given to the fact that one of these three candidates has been down this statewide campaign road before.  I am as guilty as anyone:  when T-Mac got in the race, I thought Deeds could benefit from their war of attrition, but I was skeptical.  Once T-Mac built a lead, I figured that the money and the high energy campaign was simply too much, that electability concerns or unfavorables were just not going to be enough to stop him.  But in the endgame I think we are seeing that Deeds is just a better candidate than anyone was willing to give him credit for, notwithstanding his great run in 2005.  And, whether he wins or loses this primary, I think he's made this push by going around the state and just winning people over (that is, I don't subscribe to the theory that his lead is just the result of the split Nova field -- I didn't look for a second choice cross-tab, but I suspect that Deeds would have a substantial lead over either Moran or T-Mac in a head-to-head race).

So, yes, let's all have one more day of rooting for our respective candidates and then, by this weekend, I hope we see the three of them on the stage talking about beating B-Mac.

notteacherken

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by: Ken @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 11:55:58 AM CDT

People don't care about gun issues right now...... (3.00 / 1)

Gun control is not a big voting issue with its advocates, but it is for its opponents.  That's why gun control is a tough sell.

And the Heller decision really took the wind out of the sails of gun control proponents.  I think the political punditry is underestimating how big an impact that decision has had.

This election is about the economy and transportation and education and public safety, the same stuff that's dominated for awhile.

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 13:46:20 PM CDT

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I am really sorry to see this (0.00 / 0)

I was really hoping Moran could do better in the polling.
There is always hope.

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by: tammykincaid @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 13:36:38 PM CDT

when you have strong Moran supporters (0.00 / 0)

criticizing aspects of his campaign, and some supporters switching sides because of it, one could say he has only himself and his campaign to blame for how poorly he is doing.

A number of people who decided to support McAuliffe originally wanted to supporgt Brian, kept begging Moran for a clear message, as far back as 9 months ago.  They didn't get it.

And the negativity that has come from the Moran campaign has a great deal to do with the surge for Deeds.  The attacks might have bitten some against Terry, but did not draw people towards Brian.  In a 3way race, doing attacks is often dangerous for just that reason.

I suppose we could be surprised tomorrow, but I tend to doubt it.  

And Creigh's final share should not be below 38% and could get as high as 50%.  

This is my world and welcome to it

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by: teacherken @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 14:31:14 PM CDT

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One more thing to add about the Moran campaign (and how it has been waged) (0.00 / 0)

Even when it sticks to the positive, it relies on out-dated, overly focused, demographics-oriented material.  I have received three mailings and every single one of them have been about "seniors."  Obviously, he thinks all we care about is ourselves.  He offers up nothing about jobs, nothing about the environment, nothing about the economy, nothing about anything, except fighting for Virginia's seniors" or fighting for "in-home care."  The mailings are pathetically brief as if he thinks we can entertain only one thought in our heads.

Attention Brian Moran: We care about all the issues.  You insult us!  Big time! Give us your whole vision for Virginia--if you really have one.

I think your (Moran) campaign has been the worst campaign for a governorship which I have seen over four decades (in four states).  I expect the candidate to refrain from pitting generations against each other.  Tell me how you'll fix schools, fund higher education, assure our parks stay open, and more.  Tell me how our working-age adults will get jobs or keep them.  Tell me how you'll train workers in transition.  What will your budget making priorities be should XXXX hit the fan, as it as in Calif?  Will you scapegoat the poorest among us?  (I really hope not.)  Will you send poor people into homelessness by cutting off all their resources, as the governor of Calif is trying to do.  And if you should win tomorrow, it will be in spite of the race you've waged, not because of it.

"One person, one vote" died at the hands of SCOTUS, January 21, 2010

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by: KathyinBlacksburg @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 15:15:27 PM CDT

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This is really unfair - again (0.00 / 0)

Really, Kathy, I don't think there's anything wrong for Brian to focus on what he would do for our seniors or for any other demographic.  It's not a zero sum game.  I'm taking care of my elderly mother who is in failing health.  Haven't slept in my own bed for a month.  I have a caretaker for her during the day and to be frank I'm not getting enough credits against her income for that service.  I could place her in a nursing home and get all sorts of Medicare coverage, but she loves her home and is comfortable there.  She has her things there - her clothes, her personal effects, her little mementos, her pictures on the wall - and so I keep her there in spite of the difficulty and pay a daytime caretaker to monitor her, feed her, wash and dress her, and report to me on her status.  Brian is talking about helping people like me who are stuck in this position.  How could you possibly interpret his plan to be "pitting generations against each other"?  All I know is my generation has this obligation to that older generation and it's a struggle and I'm not getting enough support from the state for my decision to keep her mother in her home as long as I can.    

I wish Brian's campaign had spent more time talking about the wonderful plans he has to help people in all those categories you mention, but the fact is that it is there in his plan for all to read - and it's not a 130 page thesis.  

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by: Catzmaw @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 18:51:55 PM CDT

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You know, (0.00 / 0)

you really ought to listen to yourself, catzmaw.  You talk to me about "our" seniors.  Spare me.  I have told you I am one such senior.  But you proceed to act as if it's totally OK to
trivialized and stereotyped like this. It's an insult to all seniors that Moran and his bloggers think that's OK.  We aren't idiots.  We are not all interested in one thing.  And we have every right to call BS when we are stereotyped and pandered to.

Yeh, Brian can target if he wants to.  But I hold him accountable for how he markets his campaign.  And he needs to be accountable if his overarching message is completely lost (assuming he has such a message).  

I supported Brain for quite some time.  He lost me (and a lot of other folks).  And this is but one of the illustrations of how he lost voters. Completely fair.  Period.

"One person, one vote" died at the hands of SCOTUS, January 21, 2010

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by: KathyinBlacksburg @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 20:27:44 PM CDT

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Nonsense, Kathy (0.00 / 0)

I was at Brian's Arlington headquarters this evening and found one of the horribly offensive cards you referenced in your comment.  It said that no senior should be forced to go to a nursing home.  Period.  Where's the offense?  Please tell me, WHAT exactly did the brochure say that got your knickers in such a twist?  Is it just the failure to talk about everything he supports?  What are you going to attack next, Brian's position that every child in Virginia should be covered by health insurance unless he agrees to talk about transportation and seniors and green energy and the environment in the same brochure?  Is it "pitting" demographics against each other for political gain for highlighting one area in which we should expect better of our government?

I'm not that far from being a senior myself, but right now my concern is the 88 year old mother whose care has fallen to me.  I don't understand why focusing on one particular issue is such an evil thing that it deserves your opprobrium.  Maybe you ought to listen to yourself creating controversy where there is none and attacking someone for suggesting that not everyone should stand quietly by while elderly family members - yes, OUR elderly family members - are forced into nursing homes because the law favors that and not home health care.  

 

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by: Catzmaw @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 21:28:45 PM CDT

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I did not use those words (0.00 / 0)

I did not say "horribly offensive."  You did.  I said insulting.  The one-track brochures are.  The campaign belittles seniors by sending ONLY (at least to me) several mailings about one issue and nothing else.  

"Stand quietly by while family members....?"  You are really over-reaching.

And I serve notice to any candidate who sends only such targeted mailings.  No one at this address will vote for candidates who so blatantly pander, yet have nothing to say about the larger case (or lack thereof) for their candidacy.

PS I never attacked Brian's "position" about child health care. I support it.  Support working adult health care too.  But Brain's campaign  seems to think I don't care about such things.

Had I tried to "create controversy" I would have written an article about it.  I didn't.  But you think any criticism of how your candidate has run his campaign is off limits.  The entitlement to be above criticism has cost your candidate dearly.  Still is.  But just keep it up.

As for me.  I am heading to the polls.  Have a nice day.

"One person, one vote" died at the hands of SCOTUS, January 21, 2010

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by: KathyinBlacksburg @ Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 08:10:23 AM CDT

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Close the office. lol (1.00 / 1)

I have told Moran to close the offices . Since Blue Commonwealth called  the race for deeds . lmao

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by: fungus @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 18:09:37 PM CDT

In this climate Terry's negatives can't be (0.00 / 0)

overlooked, or underestimated.

There are two overriding factors in play here in this climate of late surge and momentum: a Dem desire to win combined with Creigh's infectious "likeability" and, sorry to say, but a desire by many to "give the finger" to Terry.

Thus, I predict a siphoning off of weak Brian supporters, enough to give Creigh a comfortable victory.

I'd be more confident in using the word "comfotable" if I thought there would be a distinct, reasonably statement-making turnout tomorrow.

And I'm not confident there will be.

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by: benjaminwalterWV @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 18:46:22 PM CDT

Fineman, Chris Matthews, Politico's Jon (0.00 / 0)

Martin just discussed the race. Martin: I'm from VA, and his sources tell him it's a curveball to McDonnell if Deeds wins. They never counted on running against a Democrat from a "rural area."

He goes on to say that his sources tell him the candidate they wanted to run against was Terry.

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by: benjaminwalterWV @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 19:01:54 PM CDT

That's what (3.00 / 1)

I've thought from the beginning -- that the Repubs want to run against Terry. Just like they wanted to run against Hillary last November. It's easier to make s*** up, and make it sound "truthy", if the candidate you're running against has had national exposure. Especially if he/she can be tied to the Repubs' perennial bugaboo: Clinton, William, the Devil of the Blue Dress infamy. Deeds will be much harder to misrepresent that way.

My suspicions really crystallised when I had that phone poll last week, which had to have been from McDonnell people (judging by the direction of the skew in the questions asked). The only push-poll type of questions against a candidate were against Terry; they didn't bother to try and discredit either of the other two.

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by: libra @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 22:20:43 PM CDT

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Undecided Voters (0.00 / 0)

I made several hundred phone calls Sunday and Monday, speaking with at least 300 voters.  I did not actually keep track these two days, since I had no idea who was at the other end and the tracking was done electronically.

Definitely the number of persons who supported Deeds was more than those who supported Moran.  However, several voters did not want to share whom they would vote for, and I of course did not try to force an answer since my goal was to reach the undecided voters.

About 25% of Voters were undecided, and about 80% of them were willing to discuss options with me.  After disclosing that I supported Terry McAuliffe, I explained why I was voting for him and what his strengths were.  The majority of these voters appeared to accept my logic, 3-4 asked very pointed questions and a couple said they would not vote for McAuliffe, but were not sure whom they would vote for as all three candidates had their strengths and they were unable to choose between Moran and Deeds.

I believe the numbers in all polls is a function of the population surveyed, and unless this is a constant there are no trends.  Automated polls also have a limitation that it represents the expressed opinion of the person who answers the phone, which does not necessarily represent the opinions of others in the household.  So it could just be luck of the draw - in my home for example, it would be a function of whether my son, or I answered the phone :)  In many homes, it would depend on which spouse answered the phone.

This is not denial. Without a doubt Deeds has picked up a lot of momentum, and his campaign has used money wisely in the last week, placing thousands of WP Endorsement signs on many major streets.  However, any poll that reveals 93% decided in this race is probably a little less representative than the poll that shows at least 20% undecided.

It is already 12:10 and in about 7 hours, we should start seeing some numbers coming in :)  That will show reality, and numbers that are final.

At my Precinct, the first 4 hours had brought in only 100 voters, out of at least 400 expected today.  We had just under 600 voters for the local Chairman of the Board of Supervisors election last year, hopefully the Governor's Primary Election will bring in at least 400 voters.  We had just over 100,000 voters then, just Fairfax County. My expectation is that we will have at least 300,000 voters statewide.

McAuliffe will get at least 150,000 votes, Deeds 100,000 and Moran 50,000.

Do all the good you can
By all the means you can
In all the ways you can
In all the places you can
At all the times you can
To all the people you can
As long as ever you can
John Wesley

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by: alankrishnan @ Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 11:15:19 AM CDT

you are way off on your numbers (0.00 / 0)

I know of no one in the McAuliffe campaign who at this point expects him to get 150,000 votes.  Right now I think they would be delighted with 80,000 out of 200,000 because that would be 40% and would be enough for them to win.  

Is it possible McAuliffe can win?  Yes, depending upon the model of turnout - what part of the state, what is driving the vote.  Is 300,000 possible?   seems entirely unlikely based on turnout figures through early afternoon.  There are spots where turnout is up - the two hotly contested HOD races in Fairfax and Arlington, in Arlington in general because of Signer working the heck out of it.

But there are also areas that are way down.   And late afternoon - early evening rain may not help either.

This is my world and welcome to it

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by: teacherken @ Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 15:50:08 PM CDT

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