New poll put McAuliffe ahead, but only for the primary

The crosstabs are particularly interesting...

41% of young voters for Deeds in the primary.
40% of McAuliffe supporters who might change their mind before the primary.
47% of the NOVA vote for Moran during the primary.

This also shows that Bob McDonnell can be beaten.

I generally respect SurveyUSA as one of the most accurate and consistent polling firms. The spin from all sides will be fun to see.

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by: Isaac Sarver @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 16:00:11 PM CDT

Sorry to reply to my own comment...

the frequencies are even a little stranger though. If you click the drop-down tab on the SUSA website. It shows that of the 156 McAuliffe supporters ID'ed in the primary, 101 may still change their minds. That would translate to 66%... but the percentages page doesn't reflect that.

Hmm... I'm stumped on what to make of these numbers just yet.

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by: Isaac Sarver @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 16:16:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Lowell has a good analysis of internals

take a look here at Blue Virginia

This is my world and welcome to it

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by: teacherken @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 17:28:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

another analysis of crosstabs from Kenton

at New Dominion Project

However, even if you were to adjust sample to 41% NoVa as was the case in the general, McAuliffe would still be leading statewide.

This is my world and welcome to it

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by: teacherken @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 17:44:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Kenton's analysis is flawed in at least one respect

Kenton claims that NoVA is under-represented in the poll. This is demostrably incorrect.

Kenton's argument is that in the 2006 primary, 41% of voters were from NoVA. This is true. But I looked at Democratic participation in five other elections, and in each one NoVA represented from 31-33.6%.

So, in this regard, at least, the susa poll is valid.

You can go here for more of my methodology if you care (NOTE: I did this analysis a few weeks ago in connection with something else, but it applies directly to Kenton's critique of the SUSA poll):

http://virginiademocrat.blogsp...

The Virginia Democrat

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by: aznew @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 18:38:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Clearly big news from McAuliffe, Deeds

McAuliffe argument: I can win a primary

Deeds argument: I can win a general election

What's sad is that McAuliffe may win the primary but get creamed in the general but the most electable candidate can't get passed the primary....

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by: Bigvinu @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 16:04:20 PM CDT

Not really

If McAuliffe wins the primary all the Moran and Deeds supporters will back him giving him the edge he needs.
Also keep in mind there is only one Republican running so conservatives have no one to fight over, that's the only reason McDonnell is so high in the polls.

Lesson learned from this poll: Moran is losing steam and losing it quickly...

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by: YoungVaDem @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 16:25:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not exactly true

The reason Deeds is doing better than McAuliffe in the polls isn't because he's getting more support from other Democrats, its because he's getting more support from Independents. And this makes sense, because both Moran and McAuliffe are hyper-partisans, while Deeds is more centrist.

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by: VA Blogger @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 17:42:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Looking at source of donations

in vpap the geographical distribution of source of funding reported by candidates shows that Deeds has supporters all across Virginia in almost every county, whereas both Moran and McAuliffe do not... or so it seemed to me, correct me if I'm wrong. I know this comment is not directly about this poll, but it may explain some of the results.  

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by: Teddy Goodson @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 18:04:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You are absolutely correct

This is a great point.

Everyone who is interested in which Democrat is most electable should look at those maps, which can be seen here:

http://www.vpap.org/updates/sh...

The Virginia Democrat

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by: aznew @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 18:40:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The campaign's spin

Don't know about others, since I only get updates from Deeds, but his take is, basically: he's the most likely to win in general (we've always known that, but it's nice to have it confirmed); donate to get him over the primaries hump.

What ticked me off was that the release didn't mention the actual numbers and had no link to the poll, so that I could find those numbers for myself. I had to come here -- thanks, teacherken! -- to get those. And, while his numbers are the best ones in a match-up with McDonnell, he's still losing, and the loss is greater than the margin of error. Which is exactly what I had suspected, the moment I saw there was no mention of those numbers. If you have something serious to brag about, you do.

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by: libra @ Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 19:54:30 PM CDT

Terry McAuliffe Makes Me Feel Very Uncomfortable

http://www.terrymcauliffemakes...

That's all I have to say.

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by: Bob Smith @ Thu May 14, 2009 at 20:45:40 PM CDT