Clarence Page, writing in "Page's Page" for the Chicago Tribune asks "Are storm clouds brewing on the horizon for Democrats," referring to the elections coming in 2010, based on some startling figures from the latest weekly tracking poll by Daily Kos (http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/pagespage/2009/11/new-dangers-for-dems-in2010.html
The first figure is certain/likely to vote; the second is unlikely/certain not to vote in 2010 in the congressional elections:
Republican Voters: 81 / 14
Independent Voters: 65 / 23
Democratic Voters: 56 / 40
This does look as though Republicans are far more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting; 81 percent of Republicans are certain or likely to vote, compared to 65 percent of Independents and only 56 percent of Democrats. Why did this happen?
Mr. Page says progressives are "demoralized or burned out by Washington's political compromising on issues like health care, Afghanistan and Guantanamo. Young voters, their Obama fever flamed out, have retreated to study for finals or look for work amid growing unemployment." While some conservative and moderate Democrats are spooked by polls like this, saying they prove Democrats should drop health care reform and run to the right, Nate Silver at Five Thirty-Eight.com disagrees. He believes Democrats are now forced to pass health care with a strong public option, since people who oppose the plan will blame the Dems whether they pass the bill or not, and people who like the plan will become even more despondent if the Dems fail to pass health care reform---- a case of double damn. |
| I tend to agree with both Page and Silver, although I have some reservations about exactly what the poll figures really mean (for example, since when do 81 percent of any group of Americans actually get out and vote? And, even if they did, how many actual voters does 81 percent of the Republican group amount to compared, say, to 56 percent of the Democratic group, which may well be a much larger group to begin with?
What really struck me, however, were some of the revealing comments on Mr. Page's article. They crossed the spectrum, from rabid righties to some unemotional moderates and sincere lefties, including one analytical soul who inadvertently answered my questions. We need to hear it from the folks who do not live in Government Land:
"If the democrats pass the health care bill now being debated with its over 100 new bureaucracies, medical boards to control doctor's decisions on patient care and 3 years of increased taxes before one iota of health care is provided........history may well note the end of the democratic party, except for the 20 percent of its marxist base.....the liberal elite vs. the peons..... I never thought I would ever see the end of the US republic as Alexis de Tocqueville did many years ago." ---- rose davis
"It's absolutely true that those who worked so hard to get President Obama elected are totally disillusioned and burned out. In part, it's because of the crisis-focused tit-for-tat, ain't-I-funny media. In larger part, it's because for many of us, we've realized (some of us, for the first time) that the greatest obstacle to true change is the elitist lifers in the Senate and, to a large extent, even the supposedly more "representative" House.
Rahm Emanuel insists on taking credit for the Dem majority, so let him live with the fact that his Republicans-in-Drag Blue Dogs have become the main factor in his boss losing the battle for change on his highest priority domestic agenda item, health care....
And Obama can take full credit for his decision to send tens of thousands more of our over-extended.... troops into Afghanistan to defend a corrupt heroin-dealing government that "won" a fixed election... for allowing the first Latin American coup to stand in Honduras... for bail(ing) our too-big-to-fail crooks without reforming their lending and salary bonus practices, and not passing a fair bill to end loan shark... credit cards immediately... for letting Van Jones and ACORN get nailed..... Hold Bush/Cheney accountable for war crimes and torture? Fail. End invasion of privacy in FISA? Fail. Fight for a carbon tax and true sustainability... cap and trade? Fail."---- Vcubed
".....The electorate has looked behind the curtain and seen the empty suit that capitalized on its sense of guilt over slavery and its ligering (sic) effects..... The black illegitimate birth rate has shot out of sight.... contributing to another generation that seeks to blame whites for their own lack of education and motivation....God created all men equal and the Constitution promulgates that belief. Act upon it. Demand equality, not favoritism...." ---- George Bedway
"...The conservative Democrats' only hope to win re-election in 2010 is, in fact, to panic and run to the right. I don't think Heath Shuler, for instance, owes his election to liberals in San Francisco. It is his job to represent the views of his district in Tennessee. I know that irks you true-believers.....
A number of voters bought the BS promulgated by the Obama camp... and now many - especially among the self-proclaimed independents - are realizing just what these people are - liberals.... What they got was the most rigidly left-wing administration and Congress that anyone can ever remember. The correction will begin in 2010. And it will be even worse for the Democrats if they... run even further to the Left." - JB
"No question, the numbers look bad for the Dems..... The public is still roiled up by the unemployment numbers and the Dems are demoralized by the Congress' inability to enact Health Care Reform. The Dems will revive after Health Care Reform is passed. Independents will start coming around in the spring and summer as the 2010 construction season gets off with robust job gains." ---- Robert Chapman
"Obama.... The constant lying. The childish whining. The disgraceful bowing. The staggering arrogance. The poisonous radicalism. The dangerous narcissism. The astounding incompetence. Obama wants to put as much of the private economy under government control as possible to create his nanny state utopia where he is the boy king. Let's continue to stand strong against Obama in every way and get Congress out of the hands of the insane Pelosi and Reid in 2010. Obama is a smug, smirking con man. Nothing more." ---- RUDY KODER
"Obama is taking half measures on ever(y) important issue facing the nation. I blame congress and Rahm more than Obama but Obama is the President. I believe the greatest danger to Democrats is unemployment combined with the appearance of saving finance with trillions, throwing crumbs to main street and absolutely nothing for the common man..... It seems the political system is simply broken. Badly needed reform appears doomed to failure whe pitted against the insurance and financial industry powers..... Unfortunately the system appears to work all too well when it comes to big money interests-whether the government is run by democrats or republicans." ---- Ken
"So 81 percent of GOP will definitely vote....Good thing only 25 percent self-proclaim themselves to be Republican else I'd be worried. Also, since they are a particularly old cohort, there'll be fewer of them around by election day, voting intentions notwithstanding. As long as Republicans are waving fetuses, screaming at gays and Mexicans, marching against science and protesting taxes for the rich NO ONE is going to vote for them..... we may be dissatisfied with the pace of progressive reform, but we're not insane enough to support Republicans...." - Russ Carter
"..... The poll says more self-identified Republicans than Democrats say they would vote in the Congressional election. But there are more Democrats than Republicans.... And what about Independents? In the poll there are more Independents than Republicans, 25 percent versus 23 percent Republicans. How would Independents vote? Below are Independent opinions of the parties:
Favorable/Unfavorable opinions:
Independent Opinion of the Democratic Party 39 Fav / 59 Unfav
Independent Opinion of the Republican Party 13 Fav / 75 Unfav
Of Democrats in Congress 34 Fav / 62 Unfav
Of Republicans in Congress 6 Fav / 78 Unfav
Of Pelosi 29 Fav / 67 Unfav
Of Reid 22 Fav / 69 Unfav
Of McConnell 6 Fav / 77 Unfav
Of Boehner 5 Fav / 73 Unfav
Opinion of Democrats WIN among Independents..... The poll was conducted among total US adults - never mind if they are registered to vote or if they have even voted before. Intention to vote figures are suspect. According to the poll only 13 percent of adults will NOT vote next year. 87 percent of all Americans WILL vote. Huh? Not likely. By party ID, 95 percent of Republicans say they will vote, 92 percent of Independents say they will vote versus only 85 percent of Democrats. Maybe Democrats are more honest." ----Nick 10
Aside from what must be die-hard righties repeating Fox/GOP talking points, and one clear racist, the proportion seems representative, considering the historic conservative leanings of the Tribune. It's good to know just which points are resonating with that crowd, and are therefore likely to be grist for the Republican campaign mill.
The messages I got overall from the comments here were:
1) Democrats need to do a better job of messaging and public relations, taking the initiative away from the opposition and presenting the alternate view point (offense is the best defense), attacking Republican misinformation, sleazy attitudes; emphasize Social Contract versus kowtowing to corporations
2) Democrats better be seen as paying more attention to Main Street than Wall Street, cease apparent favoritism toward Big Money firms and rein in, re-regulate Wall Street pronto.
3) Obama and Congress must immediately address unemployment and even begin to create jobs directly (like FDR with WPA) rather than mincing around trying to "motivate" business because that isn't working and it takes too long to see results.
4) Address foreclosures more effectively by
a) using federal money to go ahead and pay down the mortgage balance to bring it under current market value, then re-figure payments (arrange silent second for difference, or other method of getting the money back if possible; make the investor take the loss, and do it now); and
b) hurrying up the slow implementation of the existing mortgage-modification program, encouraging less punitive and self-serving modifications by lenders.
We are, I think, at a tipping point and Democrats need to get their act together or the tide will turn too strongly against them. The window of opportunity to make good on the hopes of the campaign will slam shut and nothing will pry it open later. As for Obama, he may "have a lot on his plate," and he may have "inherited an incredible menu of messes," but that is no excuse for not showing political leadership with Congress, nor for failing to be the political leader of his Party. He has to get a grip. |
