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xcurmudgeon

Deeds Is Way Off the Mark

by: Elaine in Roanoke

Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 09:47:05 AM EDT


( - promoted by Teddy Goodson)

Creigh Deeds has done it again. Like he did after the Fairfax debate, he is letting his frustration show. I couldn't believe one excuse for his standing in the polls that he gave in a  "Battleground Virginia" interview sponsored by ABC 7/WJLA-TV, POLITICO, Google and YouTube. According to today's Virginian Pilot, Deeds said that he was lagging in the polls entering the final weeks of the campaign in part because of voter concerns over his national party's agenda.

"Frankly, a lot of what's going on in Washington has made it very tough," Deeds said. "We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on, a lot of the noise that was coming out of Washington, DC."

What a load of manure!. Creigh Deeds had a tough August because he spent the first two months after his primary victory doing whatever he was doing, instead of campaigning.

His campaign staff, it is obvious now, did not do any planning for the general campaign during the primary. Neither he nor his staff seemed to know they should have been ready to hit the ground running to take advantage of his bump in the polls in June.

It amazes me that the best opposition research for the Deeds campaign was done by Bob McDonnell himself and a young Washington Post reporter. When McDonnell bragged to her that he had done his master's thesis on "welfare reform," she actually went to Regent University and obtained a copy of the thing. Presto. Facts that should have come out in 2005 when McDonnell ran for attorney general finally saw the light of day.

Elaine in Roanoke :: Deeds Is Way Off the Mark
Another reason Deeds is behind in the race now is because he has had no consistent message and no platform of specific proposals. He has left that field for McDonnell to plow while all of the Deeds positive ads seem stuck on the message, "I'm a country boy from Bath County who loves Virginia. I'll solve the state's problems after I'm elected"

Creigh, all of us love Virginia. Heck, I bet even Bob McDonnell loves Virginia.

Deeds did try to backtrack on his earlier comment about Washington being one of his biggest hurdles. He said he and President Obama agree on a majority of issues and that he expects the president to come into Virginia to campaign with him before next month's election.

I'll believe that when I see it. Those comments about "noise" coming out of Washington don't fit with President Obama accepting another invitation to campaign in the state. If you think that is a big problem for you, what sense is there in a presidential trip to stand by your side? Plus, from what I have read earlier, the White House appears to be backing off from the Deeds campaign because it perceives just how weak the campaign has been and refuses to get closely tied to it.

The Virginia Pilot story did go on to mention that it is the candidate's own deficiencies, some top Democrats believe (as I do), that have caused Deeds trouble.

Deeds said he was now "reframing" the race in an effort to shift the focus more toward state issues and away from a broader national debate that is perilous for a Democrat running in a slightly right-of-center state. Better late than never, I guess, although I cannot actually think of any national issue that Creigh Deeds has brought up. That's what the Republican have done.

Perhaps the time to attack GOP attempts to tie Deeds to national politics was early September. Then, he could have "reframed" the debate by ridiculing McDonnell's attempts to turn the election into a national referendum on the Obama administration when the state faces so many problems of its own. And, if Deeds had had a specific plan for dealing with some of them, he could have showcased them in that context.

In the interview Deeds also said, "I came out of the primary, and a lot of people didn't expect me to win. I had to spend a couple of months hunkering down, raising money. Bob could build up his fundraising advantage to run soft and fuzzy ads and build up a lead over me."

His actions and the actions of his top campaign aides have shown that they didn't expect him to win, either. After the win, I'm afraid that both Creigh Deeds and his staff read the wrong message from the outcome. Much of the vote he got was because Brian Moran destroyed his chances by being totally negative, and Terry McAuliffe was perceived to be too much of a Clintonite to win.

I won't blame Creigh Deeds totally for all the time that he had spend on fundraising last summer. After all, Dick Cranwell has a pretty full Roladex of big spenders, and the state party could have helped with that, but they obviously didn't.

The Democratic governors and the DNC have certainly done their part so no one can fault them.

I will also give Creigh Deeds credit for conceding a couple of things he screwed up. He is not a polished public speaker, plus, he messed up in a Q & A with reporters following the Fairfax debate with Bob McDonnell, giving the Republicans their best ad to date.

Asked about a statement he made earlier this year in an interview with WJLA and POLITICO, in which he said he would like to face his Republican rival in a debate, Deeds faulted his campaign. "I don't have anything to do with the schedule," he said. "I would have loved to have done a debate with this format."

When it was noted that it was his name on the ballot, Deeds said that his campaign had a multitude of requests and pointed out that he and McDonnell had done more forums this year than the two candidates in the 2005 gubernatorial race.

I have a message for the Deeds campaign, even though time is getting very late. Obviously, President Obama did not win Virginia because the state is now blue (progressive). He won because his campaign was flawless, he energized the minority vote, he had the money to spend, and he had a message and policy proposals that resonated with people. Can you emulate that, Creigh? That's a very tall order in a very short time.

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Really-what does he have to lose? (0.00 / 0)
Right now Deeds is down-so why not put it all on the line-show what you are made of-and I do think Deeds has the "right stuff" but not everyone knows it.

Get back out there and tell his story of where he wants to lead Virginia! His push for keeping a strong education system-K-college will bring many along. How about good jobs-for all Virginians-with equal pay for women, etc?


Deeds had plenty to offer (4.00 / 1)
in his GMU speech, and it is very clear from such things as transportation that when it comes to effective governing, Deeds has the experience and know-how to put together a realistic transportation plan and funding scheme, and get it passed through the Assembly.  His approach to every one of the state's problems, including jobs, education, transportation, and budget shows that he has the know-how to govern. Bob McDonnell's smoke and mirrors, no-tax gibberish shows that he does not.  Even The Washington Post understood that when they called McDonnell's transportation "plan" nothing but phony-baloney.

It is utterly beyond me why Deeds has not kicked his staff in the hindquarters and created ads that emphasize his legislative competence and experience, his clear ability to govern in the tradition of Warner and Kaine, and the fact that only he, as a Democrat, can continue the Warner tradition which made Virginia the number one state for business and the best place to raise a child. Republicans are not, repeat not, the party of small business, only mega global corporations, and Democrats should say so and stop letting them get away with proclaiming they favor business.

Deeds should stop whining and start doing some deeds.


Perhaps Deeds is correct (0.00 / 0)
Creigh Deeds may have hurt his campaign by being candid but to argue that his statement regarding the impact of national politics and the Obama administration on his campaign is wrong is to misread the citizens of our Commonwealth.  Virginians are certainly interested in the traditional state issues of transportation, education, public safety, job creation, etc. but this year they are also concerned with national issues like the Stimulus Package, Card-Check and Cap-and-Trade that may directly impact them.  Bob McDonnell has understood this from the start of the campaign and one could argue that he has achieved success as least as far as the polls are concerned.  So far, Creigh Deeds has focused on neither state or national issues but rather on Bob McDonnell.  We all now know more about Bob McDonnell but we still don't know much of anything about Creigh Deeds.  With 26 days to go, it is doubtful that Mr. Deeds will be able to reframe his campaign.  It looks like a Republican sweep in November.


Deeds Is Off the Mark... (0.00 / 0)
State elections in Virginia have never hinged on what's going on in Washington. Case in point. Mark Warner, a Democrat, won in November 2001, a time when George W. Bush was riding a 80%+ approval rating because of September 11, a time when Virginia was decidedly a majority Republican state.

Mark did not spend his time trying to curry favor with the people who - at that time - didn't realize that "Emperor Bush" had no clothes on. Instead, he talked about Virginia, about how the state had to correct the terrible mistakes of the Gilmore administration that almost bankrupted the Commonwealth, how he could bring business to Virginia.

Creigh Deeds is no liberal. Virginians know that. What they don't know - because he hasn't told them - is exactly how he can make things better, how he can correct the mistakes of the Republican-controlled House of Delegates regarding transportation, how he can bring jobs to the state.

Surely he can answer McDonnell's ridiculous "Bob for Jobs" mantra that mimics Jim Gilmore's "Ax the Tax."

I feel his biggest mistake was not attacking the "phony-baloney" McDonnell transportation plan from the first day McDonnell put that thing out.

If Bob McDonnell actually thought that cap-and-trade, card check, etc., were the main concerns of the people, he wouldn't have centered his campaign on transportation, jobs, and that old Republican claim to not raise taxes while the Democrat will.

Believe you me...nobody I know of is agonizing over card check or even global warming. They are hoping to hang onto their jobs, to keep their health insurance, wondering how they will get to work if Virginia loses federal transportation matching funds because we can't do the match...


[ Parent ]
No, cagey, today's WaPo poll proves otherwise..... (0.00 / 0)
WaPo released their poll today showing Deeds down 53-44 among "likely voters."  Those exact same likely voters give Obama a 53-46 job approval.

Deeds has screwed himself, this "national environment" crap shows just how out of touch he is with reality.


[ Parent ]
McAuliffe Gets It (3.00 / 1)
The Virginian-Pilot had a story about Terry McAuliffe's recent address at Harvard's Institute of Politics, McAuliffe said that McDonnell's Regent University master's degree thesis was "very right-wing" and said the former Virginia attorney general believed working women represented "the destruction of the home life."

"Should it be the basis of your campaign? No," said McAuliffe. "My advice, I don't like to talk about my personal conversations with candidates, but would not be far from...saying, "Tell people what you stand for. People don't vote the negative stuff."

"What are you going to do to fix transportation?" McAuliffe asked. "Virginia is the ninth wealthiest state in America; we are 37th on teacher pay . We're one of the few states next year that no longer will be able to apply for federal highway matching funds, cause we don't have the state grant. We are broke. That's what we should be talking about."

"Creigh pretty much doesn't have to say anything because the Washington Post is out there every day doing it," McAuliffe joked.


From far away in Michigan (0.00 / 0)
Deeds seemed like the least likely to firmly rally the Dem base in Virginia all along. He is a good, decent and perfectly wonderful human being, but he was nominated because there were so many people intent on NOT nominating McAuliffe (full disclosure: I was pulling for Moran) that they forgot that they needed someone that people would want to vote FOR in November.

[ Parent ]
Egalitare, Moran and McAuliffe wouldn't be any better...... (0.00 / 0)
They would just have a different set of problems.

Between the two, McAuliffe probably would be doing better right now because he ran an unquestionably sound campaign organization.  He had the mechanics down pat.  And he'd have more money than Creigh or Moran.  But he had major candidate profile problems in that he's never run for anything in his life, and that's a problem for voters when you're asking to be Governor, a major executive job.  And TMac's background was in professional politics and wheeling and dealing in business, both of which provided plenty of fodder for critics.  I had no problem with him personally or as a potential Governor, but his polling negatives were sky high right from the start, and that was a major problem.

Moran was just a disaster.  He, too, had a major profile problem, easily stereotyped downstate as an Alexandria hyperliberal.  And he was no stronger a fundraiser than Deeds, evidenced by the fact he quit the Assembly just to raise money full-time and still only modestly outraised Deeds who remained in the state Senate.  And Moran proved in the primary he had the same problem putting together a competent campaign that Deeds has had in the general.

Back in the spring, pre-primary, national pundits like Chuck Todd and others were saying McDonnell had an early advantage over any of the Dems, and they were right.  It looked that way at the time for good reasons.  But everyone knew just as correctly that campaigns and candidates matter, and that Virginia had become more liberal than a decade ago due to demographic changes.  But Creigh basically has failed to take advantage of that and has proven the spring punditry to be correct.  And it would be just as correct with TMac or Moran.

The bottom line is we had only weak choices all along.

And yet Creigh is guilty of a lot of unforced errors, or he'd still be in a dead heat right now, that's what makes this so frustrating.


[ Parent ]
New ad posted on Blue Virginia (0.00 / 0)
seems to be moving in a better direction:

http://www.bluevirginia.us/200...


Yes, this is better (0.00 / 0)
But the seeming inability of the Deeds campaign to come up with a coherent, comprehensive, positive message to complement the negatives against McDonnell is the reason why he's behind in the polls.  It's as I posted in my diary the other day; there are many people who may not be that impressed with McDonnell, but so far Deeds hasn't given them a reason to go out on a cold November day and vote for him.  He can't just hope everyone is reading or even credits the Washington Post.  He has to show that he personally understands these issues and has an answer to the question of how to handle them.  

[ Parent ]
Still a bad ad because... (0.00 / 0)
...it leads with an attack, and drowns out the rest.  That wouldn't be bad had Creigh not been airing heavy rotations of attack ads already, but the attacks are so deeply embedded in the public psyche by now that leading with an attack in yet a new ad is a real problem.  The ad should have talked up Creigh and, if an attack on McDonnell was necessary, mention it later in the spot with fewer moments devoted to it.

They still don't get it.


[ Parent ]
Good point-needs to be flipped OR just start in the middle (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Still don't know (0.00 / 0)
what Creigh's plan proposes. But, this is better than more tired thesis junk. One of Creigh's strong points, IMO, is his experience in getting legislation through, creating meeting of minds in bipartisan fashion. In comparison, Bob McDonnell has no clue, as is painfully evident in his phony-baloney (the WaPo's word, not mine) sort of sky-in-the-pie promises, which are obviously more Republican bamboozlement.

The national issues actually have impacted Virginia this time around; I am not sure Obama is the problem as such, or the endless partisan bickering in Congress. I will say that in the attorney generals' debate in Manassas the Republican, Cuccinelli, tossed off some zingers about "cap and trade," "card check vs right to work," "drilling off shore," "free market economic policies" and so on. Again, IMO Democrats need to hit this gratuitous anti-Obama/Democratic crap with responses  about voodo economics, ("free market Bush policies sound good but they are what brought us this recession and sent our jobs overseas, so are you saying you actually approved of them, Mr. Cuccinelli, Mr. Bolling, Mr. McDonnell?") And so on. Every one of the zingers was clearly understood and approved of by much of the audience.


[ Parent ]
Creigh was right. (0.00 / 0)
I know that that is not a fashionable statement to make these days, when people in the blogosphere seem determined to trash Creigh.  

I was out doing door-to-door in August.  Democrats were frankly intimidated by the tea-baggie folks, somewhat knocked off stride by the vitriol.  Good, hard-core Democrats were lukewarm on the campaign.  They had had the sense that "Hey -- we won!  Why don't the Republicans crawl back in their holes?"  And when they realized that Republicans had NOT crawled back in their holes, many good Democrats responded by saying, in essence, "Oh, damn.  We're going to have to do this again?  I don't know that I am up for that."  Independents -- at least early in August -- were soaking up the anti-Democratic, anti-Obama, anti-health care atmosphere and they were starting to buy the notion that Obama and the Democrats were socialists.  It was malarkey, but it was out there, and it is foolish not to recognize that and even more foolish to fault Creigh for having recognized it.  I don't know that it is an excuse, but it is certainly valid analysis.


People who hit the streets every weekend last fall are nowhere (0.00 / 0)
to be seen this fall-maybe if Sarah Palin would come stump for Bob?
people would get more involved.

[ Parent ]
You are right! (0.00 / 0)
People would get more involved if Sarah Palin were to come to Virginia to campaign for Bob McDonnell.  But, they would all be Republicans.  Despite the continuing sniping at Sarah Palin, she remains immensely popular with Republicans.

[ Parent ]
You're wrong cvlle, and door-knocking tells you nothing...... (4.00 / 2)
I've door-knocked several times, too, for Deeds and for Vanderhye in HD-34, and a bunch last year for Obama.  You don't learn a damn thing about what motivates or concerns the broader universe of voters--not even in the precincts where you canvass.  You get a rough feel for the landscape where you canvass IF you repeat the same area(s) enough, and that's it.

And proving you and Deeds wrong on "national environment" is reliable polling.  The WaPo poll today showed Deeds losing 53-44 in the Post's likely voter model that was a record-low 12% black and only 8% under 30, when last year exit polls said those groups hit census at 20% black and 20% under 30.  And still that older and whiter electorate gives Obama a 53-46 approval rating.  Similarly, the last Rasmussen poll that had Deeds down 51-42 still had Obama's job approval at a healthy 52-48.  And these are just 2 of many examples of the same thing:  Deeds badly underperforming Obama's jpb approval.

You have to be willfully blind not to recognize how bad a campaign Creigh has run, and not to recognize that even now the totality of polling, with Creigh firmly in the 40s and Bob barely breaking 50, shows a good campaign would have us in a dead heat right now, maybe even in a slight lead.  Deeds is less skilled a candidate than McDonnell to begin with, but we knew going into the primary we would have that problem with any of the 3 choices.  And we needed a superior campaign to make up for it.  And yet Creigh has had lousy messaging, lousy field, and lousy media, with the exception that the attack ads on McDonnell were smart and effective for a few weeks in September until they ran their course, the fact of which (i.e., running their course) Deeds' people don't seem to realize.

There's no "national environment" problem here, rather we have the exact problem all the pundits back in spring said we already were having back then no matter who we nominated:  an inferior candidate and campaign.  We needed a really good campaign to overcome it and disprove the pundits, and we got the opposite from Creigh.


[ Parent ]
The candiidate (0.00 / 0)
 is, I think, fine. I think he'd make an excellent Governor. But, I agree, that his campaign stinks on ice. It's like he's trying to plait a rope from sand or water... Can't be done.

[ Parent ]
who is to blame? (4.00 / 1)

Actually Obama's numbers started improving at the time the noise was at its height in August. Besides, most of the disappointment has been directed at an inept Congress.

Blaming this Virginia race on the health care debate is a real stretch (IMO). The problem is not Democrats all of a sudden becoming shallow. People get energized when they see a leader they can believe in with an agenda they can relate to.

The problem with Creigh Deeds campaign is his campaign.


[ Parent ]
Let's Be Honest Here (3.00 / 1)
Look. Let's be honest. I told one Deeds organizer back in August that Creigh needed a stump speech, that he needed someone on the campaign staff who knew his mind well enough to write trenchant, short issue answers...which Creigh would take the time to edit, correct and then study. And then use!

I was told, "That's still in the works." That was August 31. As far as I can see, that basic element of a well-run campaign escaped them.

What did they need issue responses for? A transportation plan, a quick response that pointed out exactly what is wrong with the ridiculous crap on transportation McDonnell is spouting, job creation through support of real energy ideas...not drilling off the coast, and education, education, education.

Education is Creigh's greatest strength. At the very least, he should be able to articulate how he has supported public education while his opponent wants to take money from it. (The new ad seems to partially address this.)

I still will hope for a miracle. I am a woman of faith.


You're right on target, Elaine (0.00 / 0)
And Green Miles hit a similar note re: Deeds comments on so-called "energy taxes."

What I told Creigh to his face a few weeks ago at a fundraiser was that I hope he doesn't fall into McDonnell's trap -- the same trap Republicans always pull -- of trying to force Creigh to separate himself from Obama and all those scary liberals that make up the Democrats' base.  

His answer then was pretty good -- he said that he supports the president but doesn't agree with him on every issue, and by the way, he doesn't agree with his wife on every point either.  And this race is about state, not national issues.

That's all he needs to say for the rest of the campaign on national issues, period.  If he pulls a majority of the Obama voters to the polls, he wins.  His main task now is motivating Democrats -- not de-motivating them, which is what Creigh will be doing if he keeps trying to throw Obama and the national party under the bus.  

He can motivate Democrats and get them to the polls -- he just needs to show more fire in his belly.  Since he's not at his best speaking off-the-cuff, let him give more prepared speeches -- real stemwinders that talk about helping the little guy and moving the state forward through green jobs that bring high tech to the forgotten parts of the state (a la Mark Warner's riff on high-speed internet), and governing responsibly, not just relying on feel-good, destructive slogans like "no new taxes" and "drill, baby, drill."

I've seen flashes of that fire in Creigh and I know he has it in him.  He -- and his staff -- just need to let it out.


Right On (0.00 / 0)
Hid biggest problem may be his loyalty to people who aren't up to a state-wide campaign.

He does need to show fire in his belly, to energize Democrats by saying that we just can't allow the state to go back to the days of Gilmore Redux. Sometimes. when we need things - like transportation improvements - we have to swallow hard and pay for them.

Mark Warner - the very person who Creigh wants to tie himself to - was not afraid to raise taxes to get the state out of a GOP-created sink hole after the Gilmore disaster.

Sometimes, politicians have to take chances, step out of the crowd mentality, show LEADERSHIP. I know Creigh is capable of that.I am waiting, Creigh...


[ Parent ]
He did step out (0.00 / 0)
in his Washington Post op ed where he had the guts to tell voters that, if they wanted a solution to transportation it was not free, we'd have to pay for it, and that all options were on the table except that he would not take money from education. It was brilliant---- but the follow-up was lousy, and he lost the initiative. Again.

[ Parent ]
Who reads op-eds? (0.00 / 0)
I mean, most of the people here do, I'm sure, but the vast voting public is not reading op-eds.  They see and hear TV and radio ads.  Creigh needs to translate his ope-ed into simple, hard-hitting radio/TV ads.  Just in the last three days I've seen McDonnell's transportation ad at least five times, and I'm not watching much TV.  He gazes sincerely into the camera and tells the public all its transportation woes can be solved by selling the ABC stores.  Let's see an answer to these ads.

[ Parent ]
I know (0.00 / 0)
constantly with those ads.  It's either that one or McDonnell's daughter testifying to what a great dad he is.  It's on loop.  The only Deeds' ads I have seen are the scary music and ominous narration ones.

If all I had were the ads between the traffic & weather reports on TV in the morning, I'd know a lot about McDonnell and nothing about Deeds.  


[ Parent ]
Don't confuse the small team from the primary (3.00 / 1)
with the large team on the current Coordinated Campaign.  They are very different, other than Joe Abbey and a few aids, everyone else from the primary campaign - which was only two dozen statewide - did not carry forward to the general election.  Part of the reason for the mid-June to mid-August debacle is that they completely reloaded the campaign staff and, really, the campaign itself.  New people, new roles, hell, new signage and bumper stickers and everything.  They wasted so much time reinventing the wheel, and then the wheel itself turned out to be a flat.  

I'm not ready to give in at this point, but one thing I do know - this has been the poorest-run Democratic campaign for governor since at least the 1993 election.  

So yeah, the campaign staff sucks.  However, it isn't the fault of the primary campaign staff, because most of them are working on Delegate's races right now.


[ Parent ]
I Hope There's No Down-ticket Drag (0.00 / 0)
The H of D races are my one hope for this election. Getting to a six-seat pickup was always a stretch, but we have a shot at knocking off some guys who should be out of government.

I just pray that the debacle at the top won't mess up lower races.


[ Parent ]
I admire how McDonnell does little things right...... (0.00 / 0)
There are some things McDonnell has done right, that a lot of Republicans don't, that are worth mentioning.

Do you notice how he never bashes Obama?  Indeed, the rare few instances when he brings up Obama, it's to say something nice...even trying to tying himself to Obama in defending the thesis a few days ago!  If the "national environment" is hurting Deeds, why isn't McDonnell taking advantage of it?  McDonnell knows Obama is still popular.

And McDonnell really doesn't associate with the hard right racists and xenophobes in his party.  When the subject most recently came up in public remarks, I don't remember what he said verbatim, but it was to the effect of distancing himself from the extremism in his party in recent months.  It was a mild distancing, not something that would piss off his base or draw any compliments from us, but it was distancing nonetheless.  And McDonnell has been out there courting prominent black political players in the state.

McDonnell is the smartest Republican politician Virginia has had in my adult life.

And make no mistake, these things matter even as they go unremarked by almost everyone.

McDonnell has run a great campaign, one that most Republicans today aren't capable of running as they drool chasing after their wingnut base of racists, xenophobes, and assorted dumbasses.  And it's the little things McDonnell has done in his messaging, including what he doesn't do like criticize Obama, that matter as much as anything.

Creigh, too, needed to run a great campaign, but he's done the opposite.


Some of the pols are (0.00 / 0)
a reflection of Tim Kaine's dismal record as governor.  

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